Current Mortgage News

So what has been going on in the world of finance and mortgages? Certainly the biggest news was the fall of IndyMac. Last week we heard that IndyMac had stopped giving out new mortgage loans and was going to concentrate on simply servicing the existing loans in its portfolio. Apparently this was due to the fact that regulators felt that IndyMac was not adequately capitalized.

Many experts speculated that the days of IndyMac were numbered and might not last the year. They were right and not only did they not make it through the year they didn't even survive the rest of the week. On Friday it was announced that IndyMac was seized by US banking regulators. This was preceded by a rush on the bank by panicked depositors. The insurance fund currently has around 53 billion so the failure of IndyMac should be a significant drain of the insurance fund. The failure of the bank should cost the government insurance fund between 4 to 8 billion.

Moving on what is going on with mortgage rates this month. After rates rose through the month of June rates have fallen off in the first 2 weeks of July. This is good news because the rates feel in spite of the FED choosing not to lower rates at their last meeting. Rates on all the major mortgage products (30 Year, 15 Year, 5 Year and 1 Year) from the week of June 26 to July 3. Then rates for the most part held steady from July 3rd to July 10th. Rates fell the most on 5 Year Arms.

Its interesting to note that the spread between 5 Year Arms and 30 Year fixed notes has increased over the last month making 5 Year Arms more attractive. Below are the rates for the major mortgage products for the last few weeks.

July 10,2008
30-yr 6.37 15-yr 5.91 5-yr ARM 5.82 1-yr ARM 5.17

July 3,2008
30-yr 6.35 15-yr 5.92 5-yr ARM 5.78 1-yr ARM 5.17

June 26,2008
30-yr 6.45 15-yr 6.04 5-yr ARM 5.99 1-yr ARM 5.27

June 19,2008
30-yr 6.42 15-yr 6.02 5-yr ARM 5.89 1-yr ARM 5.19

June 12,2008
30-yr 6.32 15-yr 5.93 5-yr ARM 5.70 1-yr ARM 5.09

June 5,2008
30-yr 6.09 15-yr 5.65 5-yr ARM 5.51 1-yr ARM 5.06

Moving on lets look at mortgage payments. I like to translate mortgage interest rates into how they would affect a mortgage payment because at the end of the day that is what we are dealing with. So breaking out our free mortgage calculator lets see what these rates mean for a mortgage on a 200k house.

July 10th
30-yr $1247.08
15-yr $1678
5-yr ARM $1176.05
1-yr ARM $1094.51

July 3rd
30-yr $1244.47
15-yr $1679.08
5-yr ARM $1170.96
1-yr ARM $1094.51

June 5th
30-yr $1210.69
15-yr $1650.11
5-yr ARM $1136.83
1-yr ARM $1080.98

So what do we see happening over the next few months. At the beginning of the summer we felt rates would rise because the FED decided to stop cutting rates. Rates rose for a month and then recently have held steady and then felt a bit. Moving forward I don't have a clear idea what will happen with rates. I would have thought rates might fallen but with the fall of IndyMac the mortgage industry does not seem to be stabilizing so its uncertain what will happen with rates over the next month.